TromboneChat

Risk of Bell’s palsy following COVID-19 vaccination?
Anybody know if this is happening to brass players?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7897359/


"To the best of our knowledge, there is no mention of facial paralysis in the article describing safety and efficacy of the BNT162b2 vaccine [3], however, four such adverse events were eventually highlighted in product monographs published by the relevant regulatory bodies [1, 5]. Although FDA vaccine review memoranda do mention the occurrence of facial paralysis in the test group for both vaccines [1, 2], consumer/patient information sheets of neither of the vaccines distributed in North America warn about Bell’s palsy as a possible adverse effect [6]."

"Of the 73,868 volunteers (36,901 effectively receiving vaccine) taking part in the two large phase three vaccine trials [1–4], eight cases of suspect Bell’s palsy were reported, with a total of seven in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) and one in placebo groups (1:36,938). For the BNT162b2 vaccine, there were four cases of Bell’s palsy in the vaccine group compared with no cases in the placebo group, and occurred at day 37 after Dose 1 (participant did not receive Dose 2) and days 3, 9, and 48 after Dose 2 [1]. For the mRNA-1273 vaccine, there were three reports of facial paralysis in the vaccine group (22, 28, and 32 days after Dose 2) and one in the placebo group [2, 4]. In other words, all but one cases occurred after the second dose of vaccine."

What are the documented/expected benefits of the vaccine compared to the possibility of adverse effects?

From what I understand, there were actually fewer cases of Bell's palsy in the test group than would occur in a similarly sized portion of the population normally.

7 cases in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) versus 1 case in placebo groups (1:36,938). Not good odds.

The report states these facts:
"Of the 73,868 volunteers (36,901 effectively receiving vaccine) taking part in the two large phase three vaccine trials [1–4], eight cases of suspect Bell’s palsy were reported, with a total of seven in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) and one in placebo groups (1:36,938). For the BNT162b2 vaccine, there were four cases of Bell’s palsy in the vaccine group compared with no cases in the placebo group, and occurred at day 37 after Dose 1 (participant did not receive Dose 2) and days 3, 9, and 48 after Dose 2 [1]. For the mRNA-1273 vaccine, there were three reports of facial paralysis in the vaccine group (22, 28, and 32 days after Dose 2) and one in the placebo group [2, 4]. In other words, all but one cases occurred after the second dose of vaccine."

These are still pretty rare occurrences. Much like the blood clots reported. You will have more likelihood to catch COVID and have worse problems than to take vaccine and risk a very small chance of Bell's (which, incidentally, is caused by another virus).

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:28 pm 7 cases in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) versus 1 case in placebo groups (1:36,938). Not good odds.

Do we need to be reminded of the odds of dying if you aren't vaccinated? Realistically, even if you are forced to quit playing, you will survive.
I know which odds I'll take.

It seems to me that reports of adverse reactions should also include reports of the recovery from those adverse reactions. Maybe the Bell's palsy only lasts for 24-48 hours like the chills that are a typical reaction.

I know people who got covid and still have no taste or smell after 3 or 4 months.

Can't play trombone if you're dead.

If you don't die from the virus featured in this pandemic, there's a 100% chance of your dying from something else, and it probably won't be any prettier, either. Plus that something else could happen before you're even exposed to this virus. Life is not without risk. Live your life reasonably intelligently, and enjoy it; you're gonna die anyway. As my father-in-law used to say: "Nobody gets out of this world alive."

Doug Elliott wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 3:32 pm It seems to me that reports of adverse reactions should also include reports of the recovery from those adverse reactions. Maybe the Bell's palsy only lasts for 24-48 hours like the chills that are a typical reaction.

I know people who got covid and still have no taste or smell after 3 or 4 months.

I got COVID back in March of 2020. I was the first person most people know who had the virus. I still have altered tastes and smells. I'm glad there's been no other side effects.

Peacemate wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:43 pm

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 2:28 pm 7 cases in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) versus 1 case in placebo groups (1:36,938). Not good odds.

Do we need to be reminded of the odds of dying if you aren't vaccinated? Realistically, even if you are forced to quit playing, you will survive.
I know which odds I'll take.

Yes, this is a good point. Risk assessment is an individual decision. And informed consent requires that information should be made available, i.e., not be suppressed/censored.

My risk of death (*if* I were even to catch covid-19) can be calculated:
https://www.covid19survivalcalculator.com/en/calculator

My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated and they are in fact unknown. Anybody who claims otherwise probably already drank the Kool aid.

Burgerbob wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 12:13 pm From what I understand, there were actually fewer cases of Bell's palsy in the test group than would occur in a similarly sized portion of the population normally.

"Bell's palsy affects about 40,000 people in the United States every year. It affects approximately 1 person in 65 during a lifetime. Worldwide statistics indicate a frequency of about .02% of the population."

- http://www.neurocntr.com/bells-palsy.php

The 2021 U.S. population is about 332,000,000. 40,000 people who are affected with Bell's palsy in a year means that about 0.0001% of the population is affected by Bell's palsy in a year.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:52 am "Of the 73,868 volunteers (36,901 effectively receiving vaccine) taking part in the two large phase three vaccine trials [1–4], eight cases of suspect Bell’s palsy were reported, with a total of seven in the groups receiving a vaccine (1:5272) and one in placebo groups (1:36,938).

7 out of 36,901 is 0.0001%.

The researchers noticed that the control group had a lower incidence of Bell's palsy than the test group, but that looks like statical noise. It's being investigated seriously because that's what medical scientists do, just to be safe. But I'm not a medical doctor, so don't trust me.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:05 am My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated and they are in fact unknown. Anybody who claims otherwise probably already drank the Kool aid.

The available COVID vaccines have been studied quite thoroughly, but the only advice that I'm qualified to give you here is that you should certainly ask your doctor about this if you're concerned. As others have pointed out, your risk from COVID seems much higher than from any adverse side effects from the available vaccines.

Part of one's decision should include https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nc ... n:PTN:FY21 .

Anecdotal evidence demonstrates that predictions are nothing more than predictions. Among atypical situations, I knew a 35-year-old with zero risk factors who passed away quickly from the virus, whereas a 92-year-old with multiple risk factors experienced mild-to-moderate symptoms and recovered within days. As they say, YMMV.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:05 am My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated and they are in fact unknown. Anybody who claims otherwise probably already drank the Kool aid.

Ignoring how I disagree with this statement, what do you mean unknown? They quite literally wrote the risk in plain numbers. And Bell's Palsy is, from what I can find, mostly non-permanent.

Long-term risks are unknown as would be expected (there hasn't been the time to collect data). For the first time in the history of man a majority of the population is receiving an experimental injection with unknown long-term effects.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:05 am
My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated

I think that is an exaggeration.

Your risks from an experimental injection with an unknown chemical might be hard or impossible to calculate, although we could probably make some order of magnitude guesses from similarities to other compounds.

But we've been doing vaccines for a very long time. Chinese did some in 1000 AD, smallpox was in 1796, rabies in 1885, and then they really took off in the 1930s. So our knowledge of reaction to vaccines has grown, and that means the error bands for prediction have shrunk.

It's worth reading Nassim Taleb, books like Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, etc. He does a good job of explaining probability and why humans are so very bad at understanding it.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:37 am Long-term risks are unknown as would be expected (there hasn't been the time to collect data). For the first time in the history of man a majority of the population is receiving an experimental injection with unknown long-term effects.

We didn't have vaccines for the Flu of 1918 and we wound up having successive waves of mortality through the next 3 years. The path of COVID was looking to duplicate this. Nobody wants to shut down the planet for 3 years. Imagine having to look at another two years of no gigs.

It would have been nicer if this disease had never become a pandemic, but it's here.

The people testing the vaccines have done a spectacular job of finding something remarkably effective and trying to predict long term effects, but it's a choice of allowing another 10 million deaths or taking a 1 in 10 million chance of you getting Bell's Palsy.

Even if you get COVID and don't die, there are lock-on effects that can sideline you for decades.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:37 am Long-term risks are unknown as would be expected (there hasn't been the time to collect data). For the first time in the history of man a majority of the population is receiving an experimental injection with unknown long-term effects.

Most vaccine developments take much longer due to the inability of funding and volunteers to get large enough data sets to review and enough eyes on the data to catch all the small conditional probabilities that need to be evaluated. The data set for these vaccines and the scrutiny has been orders of magnitude higher than what would normally occur. So far these seem safer and more effective than almost all the vaccines you have received for generations. I cannot even imagine the craziness of the debate if these were "only" as effective as the Polio vaccine.

It is hard to work with conditional probabilities, especially when looking at rare occurrences, but do some thought experiments on things looking at these large sample sizes and you can realize how little signal to noise there is available. Especially when looking at the diagnostics... if a test is only 99% accurate and you test 10,000 people, you will get a LOT of positives (1% there is 100 people!). How many in 10,000 are actually affected? If it is a 5 in 10,000 type of effect, if there are only 5 "true" cases and 100 positives, what are the other 95? Adding in more medical conditions with unclear causation is even worse, so I try to avoid calculating more than I know. Doctors are famously bad at being able to work out the math here, too. I do agree with Tim's reading recommendations, those are absolutely fantastic to try to get a better handle on the probabilities involved.

From the data presented I do not think it can be clearly stated whether risk of Bell's Palsy is higher, lower, or the same after a vaccine than before... Again with all the confounding this would be a terrible case to have to define, especially without a causal link. I am glad they are devoting resources to it, however.

Cheers,
Andy

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:05 am
My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated and they are in fact unknown. Anybody who claims otherwise probably already drank the Kool aid.

Let's be clear about something. These are not experimental vaccines: they have been made available under an emergency use authorization (EUA), because there is an actual emergency going on.

The technology (mRNA vaccines) used in the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines has been used in at least one actual experimental vaccine (for Ebola hemorrhagic fever) and has been under development for years. They have received thorough safety testing in clinical studies comparable in size (or larger at least in the case of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine) to the studies that would be used in the approval of a vaccine under regular order.

The shortcuts that have been taken have been in the internal review process and in the manufacturing start-up process. Ordinarily, manufacturers would not set up for production until the vaccine was approved. The one thing the US government did right was to indemnify the manufacturers to get them to prepare for vaccine production prior to EUA and eventual licensing.

We have seen less long-term followup than we would in a more usual course of approval, because the internal review processes were shortened and trials were run in parallel to a degree (meaning that the Phase 2 trial started as soon as reasonably possible after the start of the Phase I, and the Phase 3 trial started as soon as possible after the Phase 2 trial). I would prefer to see more long-term followup, but vaccine adverse events almost always occur within a few days of vaccination.

Trials are not (and cannot be) designed to detect extremely rare adverse events. The size of a trial necessary to reliably detect a 1:1000000 adverse event associated with the vaccine would be impractically large.

Pfizer has submitted an application for regular licensure of its vaccine. I expect that Moderna will follow shortly if they have not already.

These vaccines are more effective than I had dared to hope: in excess of 95% in real-world use. We are able to re-open and figure out what our new normal will be because these vaccines are so effective.

The decision to be vaccinated or not is a personal matter of risk assessment. I believe that the risks associated with the mRNA vaccines are small: the data collected to date bear out my assessment. The risks associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection are well-known: we have nearly 600,000 deaths in the US attributable to the pandemic. COVID-19 will be the leading cause of death in the US for 2020. It is not the case that only the elderly are vulnerable to this virus.

Your risks from the various vaccines are not unknown: they are documented in the clinical study reports and in the applications for EUA (and now the applications for regular licensure). Are there extremely rare adverse events that are not described in the applications? It's possible. But by definition these are extremely rare. We do know what the common risks are, and we know some of the rarer risks (the thrombocytopenia associated with the chimp adenovirus vaccines are a good example of this).

My advice has been and remains: get vaccinated as soon as you can with whatever vaccine is available to you. It is not risk-free, but going unvaccinated is not risk-free either. No one has died of vaccination (to date), but nearly 600,000 Americans have died as a result of SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:00 pm

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:05 am
My risks from an experimental injection with emergency use authorization? They cannot be calculated and they are in fact unknown. Anybody who claims otherwise probably already drank the Kool aid.

Let's be clear about something. These are not experimental vaccines: they have been made available under an emergency use authorization (EUA), because there is an actual emergency going on.

I did not call them "experimental vaccines." You did. So let's be clear about *that*. The term I used was "experimental injection with emergency use authorization." These are not vaccines in the traditional sense; rather they are "mRNA" injections. They have indeed received emergency use authorization. The population at large seems to constitute the "lab rats" regarding any long-term effects. Therefore my term ("experimental injection with emergency use authorization") seems entirety appropriate.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:23 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:00 pm

Let's be clear about something. These are not experimental vaccines: they have been made available under an emergency use authorization (EUA), because there is an actual emergency going on.

I did not call them "experimental vaccines." You did. So let's be clear about *that*. The term I used was "experimental injection with emergency use authorization." These are not vaccines in the traditional sense; rather they are "mRNA" injections. They have indeed received emergency use authorization. The population at large seems to constitute the "lab rats" regarding any long-term effects. Therefore my term ("experimental injection with emergency use authorization") seems entirety appropriate.

This is not at all scientifically accurate.

Not sure how much use there is in engaging with someone who's repeating Q-adjacent nonsense, but for the sake of anyone else reading: mRNA-based vaccines (such as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for COVID) are not "experimental" nor is there a basis to expect they would carry any measurable risk of long-term effects. They do not alter your DNA as some have claimed, and in fact all the components in the vaccine will completely break down and exit your system after a short time. What remains are the antibodies to the coronavirus spike protein which your body will assemble based on the instructions in the mRNA. Similar antibodies will be made by your immune system if you are vaccinated by a different type of vaccine (eg J&J or AstraZeneca) or if you survive COVID infection. The safety profile of an mRNA-based vaccine is extremely favorable, and regulators would not have approved any plan to use the general public as "lab rats."

You could get hit by a bus crossing the street. You could get hit by lightning. Both have similar probabilities to your getting Bell's Palsy after an injection of COVID vaccine.

If you live in Massachusetts, you currently have a 1% chance of getting COVID. If you do get COVID, you have about a 3% chance of needing hospitalization, and something like a half percent chance of dying. There have been 17,500 COVID deaths of a population of 7,000,000, so you have a probability of 2.5 in 1000 of dying if you don't get vaccinated.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 5:23 pm

Dennis wrote: ↑Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:00 pm

Let's be clear about something. These are not experimental vaccines: they have been made available under an emergency use authorization (EUA), because there is an actual emergency going on.

I did not call them "experimental vaccines." You did. So let's be clear about *that*. The term I used was "experimental injection with emergency use authorization." These are not vaccines in the traditional sense; rather they are "mRNA" injections. They have indeed received emergency use authorization. The population at large seems to constitute the "lab rats" regarding any long-term effects. Therefore my term ("experimental injection with emergency use authorization") seems entirety appropriate.

You are trying to play semantics when you clearly have no idea what you are talking about.

Do what you will, but stop being a fool in public, please.

Cheers,
Andy

All of my comments have been respectful and legitimate. If you can respond to my original post —no one has done that yet— that would be of interest. I provided that post for the benefit of those who may not have received informed consent on the risks of these emergency use authorization injections. I know I wasn't aware of that particular risk and the data seemed relevant and of interest. I then asked if anyone is aware of this happening to brass players? Crickets. I was then relentlessly shown a barrage of incomplete and incorrect statistical analysis (probability theory and statistics happens to be one of my specialties so I can state that as fact). If you all want to inject yourself then fine by me. It sounds like most of you have already done so. However, I remain very skeptical. And I have every right to do so. In the end we will see who the fools are. Just calling me one does not make it so. I very much doubt I will contract covid, and even if, I certainly do not expect to die from it. Therefore I personally see no benefit in voluntarily receiving an emergency use authorization injection that carries risks (known and unknown).

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am I then asked if anyone is aware of this happening to brass players?

No, I haven't heard of anyone who has gotten Bell's palsy since receiving the COVID vaccine. I do know two brass players who did contract Bell's palsy years ago, and both have made complete recoveries and returned to playing near 100% within a year.

As I posted above, as best as I can tell the statistical risk of catching Bell's palsy following the vaccine is negligible and probably a similar risk as without. But statistics are not one of my specialties, I will admit. If you want more information about whether this is really a risk you should talk with your doctor.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am I very much doubt I will contract covid, and even if, I certainly do not expect to die from it.

Vaccines are like masks. They can protect you, but one of the main benefits to getting the vaccine or wearing masks is to protect the people around you. Many people cannot get vaccinated for underlying heath reasons, even though they may want to.

I doubt that you will get Bell's palsy (the risk is low under the best circumstances). If you did, I wouldn't expect you to die from it.

But virology is not one of my specialities. You really should discuss your concerns with your doctor.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am Therefore I personally see no benefit in voluntarily receiving an emergency use authorization injection that carries risks (known and unknown).

Patrick, I suspect that you've already decided what your plans are, regardless of the answers you get.

Frankly, trying to get medical advice from the internet, let alone from a trombone forum, is the wrong way to relieve any anxiety you might be feeling from getting a COVID vaccine. Talk with your doctor.

Did I mention yet that you should probably take this up with your doctor? Make a Telehealth appointment or visit in person, if you feel comfortable now.

Dave

For what it is worth because I am just one person so this basically constitutes an anecdote, I'm currently studying physical therapy, and while my exposure to patients so far is limited I can tell you that I have seen several covid patients with neuropathies as a result but not a single vaccinated person with neuropathies as a result.

One of the patients I have seen has covid related cranial nerve VIII neuropathology which has left him with sensorineural hearing loss. He's a professional drummer.

Studies on the relationships between covid and facial palsies are concerning: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7531061/

In any case, one is much more likely to contract the virus and suffer neuropathies from it than getting them from the vaccine, the latter of which has the added bonus of protecting humanity from this threat which has already killed hundreds of thousands.

This is reminiscent of the seat belt arguments, years ago when seat belt laws were being phased in. (some of us are old enough to remember. Heck, some of us are old enough to have owned cars that didn't have seat belts.)

Some of my friends argued that a seat belt could get you killed, if you were in an accident where your car went underwater or caught fire, and you didn't have time to get out.

People in favor of seat belts would claim that didn't happen. Well, that was wrong. Those rare accidents absolutely do happen, and in some of them not wearing a seat belt would save your life. Of course in a more common accident wearing the seat belt is going to save you.

I always wondered how the antis could be so sure they would have the rare accident instead of the common one.

Where I work, safety hazards are assessed in a matrix that has probability on one axis and consequence on the other. High probability catastrophic accidents require more prevention measures than low probability minor accidents. The problem is that humans are very good at analyzing consequences and very very bad at understanding probability.

patrickosmith -

Q. Risk of Bell’s palsy following COVID-19 vaccination?

A. You answered your own question, and others answered it, too

Q. Anybody know if this is happening to brass players?

A. Every one of the ~7,900,000,000 people on Planet Earth who is capable of understanding your question and capable of responding and willing to respond to it has and may continue to do so.

You have your answers.

He doesn't want answers. He's already made up his mind.

I got the Moderna shot, and yes I had heard about the possibility of Bell's Palsy.
I have know several people who got Bell's Palsy long before covid existed, brass players and not brass players. So apparently there's always a risk of getting it whether you're a brass player or not.. It goes away.

I have gotten lots of vaccinations in my life, including all the ones they don't tell you about in Air Force basic training. And Yellow Fever for a trip to Africa, and multiple who-knows-what for a trip to China. The anti-malaria drug for a trip to South America was the only one that actually made me sick, and that's not even a vaccine.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am ... I then asked if anyone is aware of this happening to brass players? Crickets. I was then relentlessly shown a barrage of incomplete and incorrect statistical analysis (probability theory and statistics happens to be one of my specialties so I can state that as fact).

You asked a very small group about an exceedingly rare event and are surprised to get no results? That could be be interpreted as answer, but I would not go there. Rare things are rare, I would think with the numbers shown I would be more surprised if we had a solid response here.

Just calling me one does not make it so.

To borrow your semantics above, I did not call you a fool. I do think your comments here are a bit foolish, simply as you have a conclusion in place and bias being shown, but that does not make one a fool. Why, for example, do you insist on playing the dance between vaccine/injection? Is that worth a semantics debate? On this forum, I would say certainly not, but we all get to put that line where ever we want.

...
I very much doubt I will contract covid, and even if, I certainly do not expect to die from it. Therefore I personally see no benefit in voluntarily receiving an emergency use authorization injection that carries risks (known and unknown).

Death is not the only option, and from every side effect study I have looked at in detail, the COMBINED chance of contracting COVID and experience the SAME effect has been greater than the side effect prevalence. That is, multiply the chance of getting COVID by the chance of getting that effect with COVID still higher than from the vaccines... Haven't done all the math on every listing, but did do it on a several before I got the shot.

All the numbers on these say they are more effective and safer than most any other vaccine in current use... I still wonder what the debate would look like if it were only as good as some of those.

Cheers,
Andy

I'll add one point - purely at the logical level, don't assume you're comparing a known risk (covid) with an unknown one (vaccine).

You're concerned about unlikely but theoretically possible long-term risks from a vaccine? Fine. You don't know what the long-term effects of covid might be either, even if your initial illness is relatively trivial or even asymptomatic. Will there be a predisposition to a rare blood cancer? Will one of your eyes suddenly drop out ten years from now? If an absence of absolute knowledge is sinister when applied to the vaccine, why not for the disease also?

This is not an appropriate place to seek medical advice (nor to evangelize against it).

As Dave says, please discuss your concerns with your doctor.

Doug Elliott wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:31 am He doesn't want answers. He's already made up his mind.

I haven't decided.

I actually *did* want to know if anyone on this forum knows a brass player who got Bell's Palsy *after* the second injection (as the report seemed to indicate). It is true the sample group is small but important/relevant to brass players.

I didn't necessarily want to be dragged into conversations (i.e., get medical advice, statistical analysis, opinions from trombonists, and the like) about the personal individual choices for receiving the injection. While I do not have to agree, I am able to listen and respond respectfully. I do make what I consider to be valid arguments. I do remain skeptical about the risk/benefit of receiving these injections given the limited duration of time to study and consequently the unknown long-term effects. For the time being I choose to "wait and see."

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:14 am

Doug Elliott wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:31 am He doesn't want answers. He's already made up his mind.

I haven't decided.

I actually *did* want to know if anyone on this forum knows a brass player who got Bell's Palsy *after* the second injection (as the report seemed to indicate). It is true the sample group is small but important/relevant to brass players.

Well, ok then. I know a bunch of brass players, myself included, who've gotten two doses of an mRNA vaccine and haven't suffered Bell's Palsy. Hooray for anecdotes.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:14 amI do make what I consider to be valid arguments.

You don't though.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:14 amI do remain skeptical about the risk/benefit of receiving these injections given the limited duration of time to study and consequently the unknown long-term effects. For the time being I choose to "wait and see."

You claim to be a specialist in statistics but don't know the basics of how clinical trials work? Or somehow you think the response to any novel disease (of which there will be plenty more) should require decades-long safety monitoring for purely speculative effects before any new vaccine or therapeutic can be deployed for general use?

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:14 am I actually *did* want to know if anyone on this forum knows a brass player who got Bell's Palsy *after* the second injection (as the report seemed to indicate). It is true the sample group is small but important/relevant to brass players.

But there are two simple answers to this.
1. Yes, somebody did get it.
2. No, nobody got it.

Obviously these are the two options. What is different enough about brass players to alter the risk of Bell's Palsy? This is like walking into a room and randomly asking if there are any left handed people. There is no path from that which leads to anything reasonable, since it's such a weird question that people are just dumbfounded by it. The way everything is stacked it makes you seem scared of the vaccines, and your defense to all criticism is just "but I didn't say that". No, but it is probably what you meant.

In my opinion this thread is either badly worded or should be a part of the big thread on COVID-19.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am probability theory and statistics happens to be one of my specialties

If the non-traditional nature of the "mRNA" style vaccine is what is alarming, consider that the traditionally-created vaccines have turned out to be quite poor.

The Chinese went the traditional route and they've got a vaccine that is only modestly effective.

Top Chinese official admits vaccines have low effectiveness

(He claims he was speaking of overall results of all vaccines but... it seems like the Chinese vaccine is the reason the overall numbers are poor)

Sinovac: Brazil results show Chinese vaccine 50.4% effective

I'm not sure I'd line up for 50%. How do you get to herd immunity with 50%?

The only saving grace for such a vaccine is if it mitigates the effects from contracting the disease. A 50% vaccine that eliminates fatalities if you get the disease is a good bargain.

Peacemate wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 am

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 10:14 am I actually *did* want to know if anyone on this forum knows a brass player who got Bell's Palsy *after* the second injection (as the report seemed to indicate). It is true the sample group is small but important/relevant to brass players.

This is like walking into a room and randomly asking if there are any left handed people. There is no path from that which leads to anything reasonable, since it's such a weird question that people are just dumbfounded by it.

I like your use of analogy but it should more closely mirror the data in the subject report. Given the veracity of the responses, it seems like almost all of you have recently been vaccinated. So maybe the more proper analogy would be something like this:
'This would be like walking into a room (of people who have all had their second injection between a few days and a few months ago) and asking them if they knew anybody who had contracted Bell's Palsy after receiving their vaccine?'

Admittedly the sample size in the report was in the 40,000 range. If this trombonechat site has 10,000 or so active members (?) then the "room of people" would still be too small to validate the report. However I did ask if *anyone knows of any brass players* in this category. So a much larger population.

Why do you think my simple question is "weird?" Why do you think the average trombonist might be "dumbfounded" by such a simple question?

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 5:38 pm

Peacemate wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:13 am
This is like walking into a room and randomly asking if there are any left handed people. There is no path from that which leads to anything reasonable, since it's such a weird question that people are just dumbfounded by it.

I like your use of analogy but it should more closely mirror the data in the subject report. Given the veracity of the responses, it seems like almost all of you have recently been vaccinated. So maybe the more proper analogy would be something like this:
'This would be like walking into a room (of people who have all had their second injection between a few days and a few months ago) and asking them if they knew anybody who had contracted Bell's Palsy after receiving their vaccine?'

Admittedly the sample size in the report was in the 40,000 range. If this trombonechat site has 10,000 or so active members (?) then the "room of people" would still be too small to validate the report. However I did ask if *anyone knows of any brass players* in this category. So a much larger population.

Why do you think my simple question is "weird?" Why do you think the average trombonist might be "dumbfounded" by such a simple question?

I haven't been vaccinated. In fact, probably won't be for a good while either. It's out of my hands. Also, this is the internet? The most elderly aren't on here, meaning most people who would be vaccinated aren't here to be asked. People just don't like when you throw around seemingly science-hostile statement.

I strongly doubt trombonechat has 10,000 active members. It doesn't even have 9000 registered accounts, and how many of those are active? Maybe 10%? How many of those have been vaccinated? Wouldn't bet on more than 50%, but I am going to say 50% have been fully vaccinated, so even taking into account that everybody has 20 brass friends, that's still only about 9000 brass players who have been vaccinated remotely related to the forum.

Why do I think your simple question is "weird"? Because it is so mind boggling. Does it matter more if any brass players have experienced Bell's Palsy any more than if anybody else experiences it? NO! I am left dumbfounded by the fact that anybody would ask the question, because the risk would be the same.

I do appreciate how much you assume things. 10 000 active members, everybody is vaccinated, experimental injections. I love the confidence, even though I dislike its manifestation.

Also, consider reading my signature. Student in Sweden, a country with a low vaccination rate that has yet to reach the youngsters of the population. Quite obvious I wouldn't be vaccinated. But hey, you're well versed in statistics, so the chances that I am vaccinated should be calculable, right?

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:07 pm

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:38 am probability theory and statistics happens to be one of my specialties

thor.jpg

I admit I don't have a clue regarding your image of Thor. But I assume this is your way of being disrespectful and/or showing contempt. If not my apologies. If so ...

Peacemate, you should come here to New Hampshire. We have approved the Pfizer vaccine for 12 year olds and up. There is an active effort to vaccinate all High School students (ages 14-18) before the start of the 2021-2022 school year.

I know only one person with Bell's Palsy and she got it long before there was COVID. Unfortunately she had to stop playing trombone because of it.

I have had my two doses of Pfizer vaccine and it's now several months later. I have not developed any kind of palsy. I would suspect Patrick Smith will suffer the same fate (i.e. not getting Bell's Palsy) from his second shot. And the odds are with me: 1 in 7,000 or so. That's called a "long shot" bet to get Bell's.

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:07 pm

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:07 pm
thor.jpg

I admit I don't have a clue regarding your image of Thor. But I assume this is your way of being disrespectful and/or showing contempt. If not my apologies. If so ...

It's a meme. Look it up. I am questioning the veracity of your claim that probability theory and statistics are your specialty. If I had a nickel for everyone on the internet who has claimed to be a specialist in the field they happen to be arguing about...

How does the small risk of Bell's Palsy from a vaccine outweigh the larger risk of long-term lung damage from COVID?

About 5% of COVID cases are the "severe" ones with lung damage.

Or how does it outweigh the other long-term problems...
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectious ... id19/91270

Early in 2021, researchers in Wuhan, China, reported that 76% of hospitalized COVID-19 patients had at least one symptom that persisted 6 months after acute infection, mostly fatigue or muscle weakness. "Studies of non-hospitalized patients have shown that anywhere from 35% to 50% of non-hospitalized patients had symptoms 2 to 4 months later," Navis noted.

Fatigue, breathing issues, and cardiac concerns like chest pain are common findings, as are neurologic symptoms, she pointed out. Of patients at the Center for Post-COVID Care at Mount Sinai with neurology referrals, "about 65% come in with cognitive complaints or brain fog," Navis said.

How much quality trombone practicing are you going to get done with fatigue, breathing issues, cardiac concerns... and brain fog?

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:29 pm If I had a nickel for everyone on the internet who has claimed to be a specialist in the field they happen to be arguing about...

You could retire in comfort, and build wowza sackbut replicas...

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:29 pm

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:07 pm
I admit I don't have a clue regarding your image of Thor. But I assume this is your way of being disrespectful and/or showing contempt. If not my apologies. If so ...

It's a meme. Look it up. I am questioning the veracity of your claim that probability theory and statistics are your specialty. If I had a nickel for everyone on the internet who has claimed to be a specialist in the field they happen to be arguing about...

I enjoyed probability theory in undergraduate school (top in a class of about 200 engineers at Univ of Illinois, Champaign-Urbana). It made getting my Masters Degree a cinch when all of my peers were struggling with stochastic processes and queueing theory. I then used that knowledge over the decades in real world engineering designs (like designing satellite systems, rockets and the like). I also taught a 4 day course to industry for a number of years on statistics. I'm a bit rusty on it nowadays. But I can spot errors and omissions in almost any amateurish reporting/analysis (typically peddled on the trusting pedestrian population). I'm not at all intimidated by others analysis. Most of the time I either learn something or find it amusing. So in closing, I retract my apology and move to the alternate ending "if so ... ____ ____." You can fill in the blanks.

Sad the way this thread has gone.

Probability and statistics? What are people going to argue about next? Real analysis?

Here's the appropriate tune to cheer you up: Twisted Sisters "We're Not Gonna Take It."

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:50 pm Here's the appropriate tune to cheer you up: Twisted Sisters "We're Not Gonna Take It."

Well, you'll take all the Covid-19 symptoms and aftereffects, apparently.

I haven't been affected to date. I'm well traveled. Have 4 kids in public schools. Gone to international swim meets in Tampa for weeks at a time with 800+ swimmers. No masks and no covid. Maybe I already got it and don't know about it. I could be one of those fortunate people with "no symptoms" (sarcasm here).

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:05 pm I haven't been affected to date. I'm well traveled. Have 4 kids in public schools. Gone to international swim meets in Tampa for weeks at at time with 800+ swimmers. No masks and no covid. Maybe I already got it and don't know about it. I could be one of those fortunate people with no symptoms.

Jesus christ.

Welp, I'm done here.