Back with the orchestra

[LeTromboniste]

Did we really not? The CDC models in early- to mid-march estimated that Covid could kill between 200K and 1.7M Americans.

And I can't find the source anymore but I quite clearly remember seeing in late March or early April forecasts that unless substantial measures were taken, a 300-400K death toll in the US by year's end was a serious possibility. That turned out to be pretty accurate.

Those estimates you're thinking of came from Neil Ferguson's group at Imperial College London. There wasn't an "official" US forecast along those lines yet, but plenty of infectious disease researchers privately ran simulations of varying levels of sophistication, many of which landed in a similar ballpark.

[EDITED TO ADD]: The earliest US-based forecasts to be covered prominently in the general media were from IHME in Washington, which were very optimistic and very wrong. The flaws in their methodology were immediately obvious to nearly all practicing scientists, and they have since reworked their model to bring it more in line with modern understanding of infectious disease.

It wasn't an official estimate but it was reported on March 13 that CDC had shared forecast models with research teams worldwide, and that those models gave an estimated 214K-1.7M death toll in the US.

[spencercarran]

Those may have been quotes or re-runs of the Imperial analysis. I don't remember any internal CDC modeling that got widely disseminated. But perhaps I'm misremembering; this whole year has been a jumble.

One frequent point of confusion is that mainstream news outlets often write "CDC study" to refer to "paper published by independent researchers in a CDC-hosted journal." The latter, obviously, is much less "official" and usually does not actually involve any government personnel.

[LeTromboniste]

It's made little news abroad (and surprisingly it didn't even become a big scandal in Canada when it came out, as the country was too busy debating a bogus corruption scandal instead), but unfortunately my home country has quite a share of blame to take for this whole mess. Since the 90s, one of Canada's important contributions to the WHO was the Global Public Health Intelligence Network, a department within the Canadian Public Health Agency that was on the lookout for early signs of possible epidemics and pandemics. It was a very efficient early warning system founded on the idea that governments can't be trusted to disclose the start of outbreaks, and it instead relied on local news report, internet boards and social media, economic and migration patterns, anything that showed unexplained patterns and anomalies. It spotted the Ebola epidemic in Africa early on, and it discovered the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic before anyone else based in part on unexplained fluctuations of the price of Mexican pork products and massive sales of bleach in the state of Veracruz, for example.

Its ability to do its job properly had been undermined in recent years by its oversight being placed in the hands of "management" professionals instead of scientists, and more recently its epidemiologists and analysts were quietly asked to switch their focus to domestic health issues, as international intelligence was deemed a less useful way to spend the money. Issuing international alerts also now required the approval of senior non-scientist bureaucrats (whereas analysts could do it themselves in real time previously). From issuing an average of over 150 warnings of potential international health crises per year in the last decade, it went to sending a total of zero warnings between May 2019 and last spring. That was the world's early warning system for pandemics, and it went dark 6 months before the outbreak started, unbeknownst to the researchers and health agencies that relied on it. Had it been active, it might well have seen early signs of the outbreak and sounded the alarm several weeks earlier.

[Savio]

It's not easy to say anything about this pandemic, even for politicians, scientists or us trombone players. But let's do our part not to spread it further. Let's hope the future is easier so we can go back and play together. One thing we learned is that playing together is a great gift. Yes, the pandemic teaches us new ways, new technology, but it is still the live experience of music and art that is the real deal. We will return there with live audiences and live performers. And a richer experience. But today we can save lives by being careful.

I think music and art are the things that have been most suffering during this pandemic, but I hope that politicians and all people see how important it really is for everyone. I think everyone longs for live music. And that is good.

Anyway, as Chris says, "we'll be back"

Leif

[Elow]

My lovely governor, 30 minutes away from me where covid is pretty bad. Of course, a packed stadium, no distancing, his family is not wearing a mask, nor is most of the crowd.

[Bach5G]

With retirement a day-to-day decision, I talked to my E Jones financial guy this week. He tells me I bought Pfizer and Johnston & Johnston about a year ago. I’d completely forgotten. One reason I have a financial guy.

One big story yesterday was the FDA approving the Pfizer, although the WH threatened to fire the FDA head if it didn’t. Trump not happy that the UK beat the US in rolling out the vaccine. (So did by the way). Not the best messaging from the WH.

The Moderna seems close, with Astra-Zeneca and Johnston not far behind. The Chinese have several vaccines but do you trust the Chinese? It appears we will soon be awash with vaccines. Sell the Pfizer now?

Surprisingly, some of the experts warn that the vaccines are only a part of the solution. We’ll still have to mask and practice social distancing and handwashing for the foreseeable future.

The US refused to shut down and now 300,000 dead in the US as of today, with the daily death rate accelerating. 100,000 a month now. Unthinkable (almost) back in March. I still don’t understand how the US health system is surviving what would seem to be an earthquake followed by a hurricane, followed by a volcanic eruption. The gov’t must be kicking in some dough (Didn’t Trump say the docs are inflating the Covid numbers to make more money?) but wouldn’t that be, OMG, socialism?

Here inside the igloo, it’s nowhere near as bad although we’re seeing an increased number of cases. We’re not as individualistic as the Americans because we know getting lost in the snow by yourself typically has a bad outcome. Huddle together. We have a few anti-maskers but no one takes them seriously except the anti-vaxxers.

Trombone content: I’m learning my alto these days, hoping to be ok on it by Sept. It’s coming along.

[sf105]

Regarding professional music making during Covid 19 in Scotland, I will share some information.
Scottish Opera are working in our home Theatre, The Theatre Royal.

Thanks for sharing what the Scottish Opera is doing to protect folks. It sounds very thorough. Best of luck to you all!

I've been following some of the London bands on video and they've been edging their way back (the LSO has a gorgeous Bluebeard on YouTube). I'm even more impressed with their playing than usual, given how long people have been out of action. I have tickets for some distanced events in the New Year, so we'll see what happens. As far as I can tell, the bones usually end up in a balcony or in the choir seats.

[spencercarran]

The Chinese have several vaccines but do you trust the Chinese?

Yes. Why not? Nothing gets approved without a bunch of independent scientists from multiple countries and organizations scrutinizing the data.

To flip it around - would you trust the US or UK governments, absent sign-off from independent experts?

Surprisingly, some of the experts warn that the vaccines are only a part of the solution. We’ll still have to mask and practice social distancing and handwashing for the foreseeable future.

It's hard to vaccinate hundreds of millions of people at once, especially since we're using two-dose vaccines. There's no overnight fix, unfortunately.

[Cathbad]

Can we still do antiphonal Gabrieli concerts?

Giovanni Gabrieli's dates fall within the second wave of Yersinia pestis. I wonder if there's a valid comparison to be made between anti-plague measures and contemporary Covid lockdowns, and the impacts on social and economic life. It could be a Phd subject for someone...

[sf105]

Can we still do antiphonal Gabrieli concerts?

Giovanni Gabrieli's dates fall within the second wave of Yersinia pestis. I wonder if there's a valid comparison to be made between anti-plague measures and contemporary Covid lockdowns, and the impacts on social and economic life. It could be a Phd subject for someone...

Presumably if each brass choir is a bubble?

Those complaining about 10-15 days of isolation might remember that the origin of "quarantine" is forty days being stuck on a tiny ship in harbour hoping that none of your crew is is infected and going to kill the rest of you.

[LeTromboniste]

Can we still do antiphonal Gabrieli concerts?

Giovanni Gabrieli's dates fall within the second wave of Yersinia pestis. I wonder if there's a valid comparison to be made between anti-plague measures and contemporary Covid lockdowns, and the impacts on social and economic life. It could be a Phd subject for someone...

History repeats itself...yes I think if you look back at the measures taken by Italian city-states to control outbreaks, you'll find many parallels with today's situation. Not just the measures, actually, but the concerns that had to be weighed and the search for balance between restrictions, individual freedom and social and economic activity.


Can we still do Gabrieli polychoral concerts? Depends where you are. One of the gigs I had this fall was indeed polychoral music (although not Gabrieli), and of course it's easier to distance when there is already spatially separated group, assuming there is enough space for distancing within each group (which isn't always the case when playing from organ lofts and balconies).