TromboneChat

patrickosmith wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 9:26 am

robcat2075 wrote: ↑Fri Jun 04, 2021 9:06 am The people with no symptoms are the reason we have an epidemic.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27/4/20-4576_article

Volume 27, Number 4—April 2021
Dispatch
Analysis of Asymptomatic and Presymptomatic Transmission in SARS-CoV-2 Outbreak, Germany, 2020

"In conclusion, our study suggests that asymptomatic cases are unlikely to contribute substantially to the spread of SARS-CoV-2."

a quote from that study...

A limitation of our study is that evidence was obtained from a single outbreak and might not be applicable to other settings. We used only information as recalled by the case-patients, which is imperfect and may introduce errors or bias.

It only looks at 59 cases. Do we really want to make nation policy on the mere recollections of 59 people?

And you have selectively quoted their findings. Their claim is that not "asymptomatic" but "pre-symptomatic" people are the spreaders.

Those are also people walking around with no symptoms.

Using those national data are a big mistake. There were not collected in a remotely similar way. Estimates like that usually come from combine registry or other reporting system data (almost always very incomplete buy useful for other things) with census data.

As for the quickie analysis I did... The extremely wide confidence interval indicate the high degree of uncertainty from random variability ONLY. This type of statistical analysis can be called "frequentist" statistics. It completely ignores the uncertainty from other sources! There are scores of selection and measurement biases that need to be considered.

Dennis wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 11:43 am ...Of course, the real problem here is what Goldberger called micronumerosity. You are trying to reach definitive conclusions on the basis of 8 observations. Insufficient data are insufficient. What the data are sufficient for is to flag Bell's palsy for further monitoring. That is in fact what has happened: the FDA has recommended.

Micronumerosity. I am not familiar with this terns but I like it! I totally agree with the above conclusion (emphasis added). The data have provided a suggestion that there might be an association between the vaccine and Bell's Palsy. Enough of a suggestion to justify more research.

Asymptomatic vs pre-symptomatic

Robert pointed out something interesting and potentially important. "Asymptomatic" is not the same as "pre-symptomatic." These groups of people may be very different. For example, it is possible that asymptomatic people are not infectious while pre-symptomatic people ARE infectious during their pre-symptomatic period.

Darts

Why are major criticisms of a data analysis being called "darts"?... To suggest they they are not important? These criticisms would be viewed as "fatally flawed" by peer reviewers if it submitted to a scientific journal for possible publication.

greenbean wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:10 pm As for the quickie analysis I did... The extremely wide confidence interval indicate the high degree of uncertainty from random variability ONLY.

THIS!

greenbean wrote: ↑Sun Jun 06, 2021 1:10 pm Micronumerosity. I am not familiar with this terns but I like it! I totally agree with the above conclusion (emphasis added). The data have provided a suggestion that there might be an association between the vaccine and Bell's Palsy. Enough of a suggestion to justify more research.

Goldberger, Arthur (1991) A Course in Econometrics. It's a very tongue-in-cheek reference to proposed solutions for the collinearity problem in observational multiple regression studies, applied to the problem of small sample sizes. Econometricians are notorious for using asymptotic results with small samples. (An economist friend of mine once jokingly said, "A sample size sufficiently large to use an asymptotic results is at least one observation fewer than are available to me.")

Goldberger's tongue may have been in his cheek when he wrote that section 30 years ago, but it's a real (and ongoing) problem. I frankly never expected to encounter it in a trombone list.

BTW, greenbean: Do you make padded bags for goosenecks? How about for F-sides? I acquired a gooseneck for my Shires earlier this year, and I'd like to store it in the Bonna case I bought for it. If I could get a bag for the gooseneck and a bag for the F-side I could store it in the current configuration.

I think it has always been a problem. It is wishful thinking, really, that you can squeeze answers from a tiny data set. Sander Greenland has written about what he calls "sparse data bias." Data analysts will often fit regular maximum likelihood models to sparse data sets and, as they add in more covariates, some estimates start to take off. They will get very excited and think they are getting closer to the real answer. In reality they are just making more "cells" with small numbers or even zeros. (Conditional ML can give valid estimates for these data.)

*Yes, I can make the bags you need. Just email me with dimensions and photos.

So in retrospect, here is what I should have initially posted:

I would like to avoid any extended discussions of medical information, politics and the like.

I have just one simple question:
"Does anyone of you know of anyone who has experienced Bell's Palsy (facial muscle paralysis, usually temporary) after their mRNA injections?

Please only respond "Yes" if true. Don't bother responding "No" because that should be virtually everybody.

And please do *not* offer lengthy discussions or opinions. Just a "Yes" if true.

The FDA is tracking this issue because there were 7 reported cases within days to months of receiving their last injection in the trials leading up to emergency use authorization. 7 out of 36,901 in that time frame is a relatively high frequency of occurrence. But the sample size (only 7 outcomes) is too small to be definitive.

My expectation is crickets. I expect no replies of "Yes."

Feel free to read all of the replies you've received here at any time.

I've known three trombone players over the years who've gotten Bell's Palsy, or some temporary facial paralysis like it, and they each had to work hard to get back into playing shape. I've only met, what, a hundred trombone players? And THREE of them had it?

Playing trombone MUST increases the risk, so PLEASE consider this before you teach children trombone.

It's a cursed instrument, I tells ya.

mwpfoot wrote: ↑Tue Jun 08, 2021 11:11 am Playing trombone MUST increases the risk, so PLEASE consider this before you teach children trombone.

I don't care, they're not MY children.

This thread is so telling of certain people and how they choose to interact with those they disagree with.

I got eh first Pfizer shot on June 16th. Won't have to take the second shot since I got Covid a few months ago.
I just developed Bell's palsy (today it's completing 4 days) and I have all the left part of my face paralyzed.
I had a concert on July the 3rd but, unfortunately, I don't see any sign of improvement.
Hope I'll get better.

I am truly sorry to hear of this. You can get Bell's from a lot of things, not necessarily the Pfizer vaccine. It may be a coincidence or it may be causal. You should notify the group doing the vaccinations about this. Also, I hope you are having your Doctor work on the Bell's with you.

Rodris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:29 pm I got eh first Pfizer shot on June 16th. Won't have to take the second shot since I got Covid a few months ago.
I just developed Bell's palsy (today it's completing 4 days) and I have all the left part of my face paralyzed.
I had a concert on July the 3rd but, unfortunately, I don't see any sign of improvement.
Hope I'll get better.

I don't understand. You had Covid several months before you got the vaccine, and because of that you decided to get the first vaccine shot and skip the second shot? That doesn't make sense.

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:16 pm

Rodris wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 4:29 pm I got eh first Pfizer shot on June 16th. Won't have to take the second shot since I got Covid a few months ago.
I just developed Bell's palsy (today it's completing 4 days) and I have all the left part of my face paralyzed.
I had a concert on July the 3rd but, unfortunately, I don't see any sign of improvement.
Hope I'll get better.

I don't understand. You had Covid several months before you got the vaccine, and because of that you decided to get the first vaccine shot and skip the second shot? That doesn't make sense.

Rodris appears to be in Brasil. Vaccine availability and protocols may be different there.

Here in the U.S.A. it is recommended to get both vaccine injections even if you've had COVID. But even post-COVID first-dosers may get strong and uncomfortable immune reactions for a day or two. (Sort of like what some of us got after our second injection.)

Best wishes with your Bell's Palsy, Rodris. Hope your medical team can provide some relief.

Four days is probably too soon to look for improvement.


Bell's Palsy

What is the prognosis?

The prognosis for individuals with Bell's palsy is generally very good. Clinical evidence of improvement occurs spontaneously within three weeks in 85 percent of cases, and most individuals eventually recover normal facial function. Some individuals may be left with mild residual facial weakness or show moderate to severe deficits.

"Some" could be a very low number.

Posaunus wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:47 pm

brassmedic wrote: ↑Thu Jul 01, 2021 5:16 pm

I don't understand. You had Covid several months before you got the vaccine, and because of that you decided to get the first vaccine shot and skip the second shot? That doesn't make sense.

Rodris appears to be in Brasil. Vaccine availability and protocols may be different there.

Here in the U.S.A. it is recommended to get both vaccine injections even if you've had COVID. But even post-COVID first-dosers may get strong and uncomfortable immune reactions for a day or two. (Sort of like what some of us got after our second injection.)

Best wishes with your Bell's Palsy, Rodris. Hope your medical team can provide some relief.

OK, that makes sense. Thanks.