Back with the orchestra

[FOSSIL]

Well, yesterday was my first day back with the full orchestra at Scottish Opera. I'd like to say what it felt like and what measures were in place.....but I can't because it's political.....

Chris

[BGuttman]

Why? Are you going to blame the problems on Boris Johnson?

I think most of the COVID deniers are here in the US. And they will be a self-limiting group. Fewer and fewer as time goes on.

Also, what is the impact of the Pfizer vaccine in the UK?

Glad that you are back at work. Are you doing recordings for broadcast or will there be live audiences?

[Savio]

Congratulations! Did you have to sit fare a way from each other, 2 meters? With the mouth protection on? Anyway today or tomorrow I will get a Wessex trombone to try out. It's in the post system someplace. I'm super excited
Leif

[EdwardSolomon]

I've got my second COVID-secure rehearsal this evening. (We managed one the night before we went back into lockdown for a month.) It's Brahms Tragic Overture and Dvorak 8 on the programme, so nothing particularly taxing, but it's still glorious sitting in an orchestra again, even with all the COVID measures (distancing, masks when not playing, a plethora of forms to complete...).

[FOSSIL]

well, it seems to have been decided that on this forum, Covid is a political issue, so a non- subject.
Chris

[spencercarran]

Why? Are you going to blame the problems on Boris Johnson?

I think most of the COVID deniers are here in the US. And they will be a self-limiting group. Fewer and fewer as time goes on.

Also, what is the impact of the Pfizer vaccine in the UK?

Glad that you are back at work. Are you doing recordings for broadcast or will there be live audiences?

Per capita death toll in the UK is actually higher than in the US, though that may change over winter if current trajectories hold. And not a self-limiting group; the nature of infectious disease is that it's a community problem and the people who make reckless choices are not necessarily the ones who suffer the consequences.

Hope you're staying safe, Chris, and that everyone in the orchestra is taking the health of their colleagues seriously.

[glenp]

Have they created a plan for how to handle performances? Outside? Limit audience size and force social distancing?

[PhilTrombone]

I assume you play in a pit, given that we are talking an opera company. Any differences in protection for the group vs being on stage?

[Dennis]

well, it seems to have been decided that on this forum, Covid is a political issue, so a non- subject.
Chris

The admins can ban me if they wish, but 2 + 2 remains 4 (except in mod 4 arithmetic, where 2 + 2 is 0 and mod 3 arithmetic where 2 + 2 = 1), and it is also true that most of the COVID misery in the US can be traced to the actions of one identifiable political group. It's not the case that all members of that group are batcrap crazy, but the batcrap crazy actions mostly emanate from that group.

[spencercarran]

...one identifiable political group. It's not the case that all members of that group are batcrap crazy, but the batcrap crazy actions all emanate from that group.

It's a bit too sweeping to say "all." Some local officials in my area (from the other team) have also behaved irresponsibly.

[Neo Bri]

well, it seems to have been decided that on this forum, Covid is a political issue, so a non- subject.
Chris

The admins can ban me if they wish, but 2 + 2 remains 4 (except in mod 4 arithmetic, where 2 + 2 is 0 and mod 3 arithmetic where 2 + 2 = 1), and it is also true that most of the COVID misery in the US can be traced to the actions of one identifiable political group. It's not the case that all members of that group are batcrap crazy, but the batcrap crazy actions all emanate from that group.

You have been warned.

Disparaging an entire group of people is a no go. Discourse is fine and okay, but a grand statement like this is not fair.

[nogginbone]

Also, what is the impact of the Pfizer vaccine in the UK?

We'll have to wait and see. You need two doses and it takes about 28 days from when you start for it to become most effective. They started giving it to people in care homes and care workers yesterday. A third of UK deaths have been residents in care homes, so hopefully this will make a big impact even though it's a relatively small percentage of the population to vacinate. People over 80 are next in the queue. It's a massive job though.

I look forward to being able to listen to live music again in the future. I did go to a really lovely small well spaced out outdoor event in the summer on a little green on the trumpet player's street. They took donations and sold CDs, but I think they did it more for the love of playing for people.

[Dennis]

...one identifiable political group. It's not the case that all members of that group are batcrap crazy, but the batcrap crazy actions all emanate from that group.

It's a bit too sweeping to say "all." Some local officials in my area (from the other team) have also behaved irresponsibly.

Fair enough. I can certainly show that mostly emanate from that group is accurate.

[FOSSIL]

I'm one of the older people here and I have to say that I view this modern world were people are quick to take offence, obsessed with PC and protective of their perceived rights, to be a depressing place . We grew up being told we had responsibilities and they were important. To my mind, those of us who have to venture out in a global pandemic, have a responsibility to inform ourselves about it from scorces that have roots in mainstream science, to protect both ourselves and others. Never in history has there been so much information available and never before has so much of it been dubious garbage. We must read and cross reference and hope we have enough trusted information to form a judgement on the safety issues.
The media that I see and hear in the UK have often behaved in a lamentable fashion, sensationalising information, confusing the public and distorting facts.
Almost beyond belief.
The reasonably intelligent here can sift the internet for good information, the intellectually challenged will find safe harbour in whatever social media platform reinforces their pre formed beliefs.
So be it.
Regarding professional music making during Covid 19 in Scotland, I will share some information.
Scottish Opera are working in our home Theatre, The Theatre Royal. We have staggered arrival times to avoid queuing. Our temperatures are taken upon arrival, we then have to proceed to a named chair in a rest area, spread over three floors to preserve social distancing.
30 minutes before the start of the rehearsal we can take our places on stage to prepare. We are on stage, socially distanced with large screens around the conductor and the wind section. such are the resulting distances that the conductor has to use a microphone. The singers are in the auditorium, well away from the orchestra. An air circulation system has been installed together with extra heating to compensate. We rehearse for 45 minutes then take a 15 minute break away from the rehearsal area. Management have airflow monitors to check the system during rehearsal. Masks worn at all times apart from when wind and brass are playing. Hand sanitizer is everywhere.
Remember, this is a national company, answerable to government and with a duty of care to it's employees, so they go above and beyond. We have all been provided with a printed risk assessment.
The performance will be recorded and broadcast.
I hope that may be of some help to those considering what is acceptable protection. Nothing is 100 % safe. We can only do our best.

Chris

[BGuttman]

Thanks, Chris. Very interesting.

[glenp]

Regarding professional music making during Covid 19 in Scotland, I will share some information.
Scottish Opera are working in our home Theatre, The Theatre Royal.

Thanks for sharing what the Scottish Opera is doing to protect folks. It sounds very thorough. Best of luck to you all!

[spencercarran]

Thanks for the info, Chris.

I'm not qualified to comment on whether those precautions are "acceptable" (beyond the obvious - it's safer than pre-covid close quarters playing, less safe than everyone staying home). I am curious what your perception is of the musical impact of the precautions. Do the greater distancing and screens make it more challenging for the group to all play together or balance different parts appropriately? Or I suppose if it's being recorded, does that become an audio engineer's job to adjust after the fact?

[FOSSIL]

Thanks for the info, Chris.

I'm not qualified to comment on whether those precautions are "acceptable" (beyond the obvious - it's safer than pre-covid close quarters playing, less safe than everyone staying home). I am curious what your perception is of the musical impact of the precautions. Do the greater distancing and screens make it more challenging for the group to all play together or balance different parts appropriately? Or I suppose if it's being recorded, does that become an audio engineer's job to adjust after the fact?

You are right, whatever the measures, there is no such thing as safe...just safer.
I have to say that the measures that are in place seem to have little effect on the orchestra's work...... and the extended inactivity has also had little impact. It felt very much like business as usual.

Chris

[LeTromboniste]

I am curious what your perception is of the musical impact of the precautions. Do the greater distancing and screens make it more challenging for the group to all play together or balance different parts appropriately?

My context is obviously different than Chris's (i.e. not orchestral and in some cases already normally involving some dealing with distances) and the precautions on the gigs I've had so far this fall aren't anywhere near the level that Chris described (mostly because they don't need to be, as the roster is much smaller), but my experience so far is that in high level professional contexts, I've felt little to no musical impact from the measures – in fact I've had one of the best experiences working in a section in a long time despite the distance. However, on gigs involving a less elite roster, the impact has been much bigger and any ensemble or intonation issue that might have otherwise arised is greatly amplified by the circumstances.

[LeTromboniste]

I'm one of the older people here and I have to say that I view this modern world were people are quick to take offence, obsessed with PC and protective of their perceived rights, to be a depressing place .

Ain't that the truth (and it's not just "older people" who adhere to that!). Everything is political to some extent. Politics is important. I have a problem with the notion that talking politics somehow equals encouraging divisiveness, like was claimed in the other thread. Oh and asking for discussion to be shut down and invoking one's "right" to not be offended or to not be told what one should do IS a political statement.

Anyhow, glad to hear you're back to work!

[glenp]

I'm one of the older people here and I have to say that I view this modern world were people are quick to take offence, obsessed with PC and protective of their perceived rights, to be a depressing place .

Ain't that the truth (and it's not just "older people" who adhere to that!). Everything is political to some extent. Politics is important. I have a problem with the notion that talking politics somehow equals encouraging divisiveness, like was claimed in the other thread. Oh and asking for discussion to be shut down and invoking one's "right" to not be offended or to not be told what one should do IS a political statement.

Anyhow, glad to here you're back to work!

Guys I was just trying to avoid a fight. There are lots of valid complaints about both political parties handling of the pandemic and rather than engage in an argument where there is a lack of willingness to listen and respect, I suggested ending the discussion. I like this little corner of the internet because it isn’t so negative and polarized. There’s so much of it out there and I had hoped we could avoid it here.

If the moderators feel it’s okay to have a heated argument about the politicization of Covid and the failures across the aisle, I won’t be engaging. But not because I don’t want to be offended; rather it’s because from what I’ve seen, most people who argue about this are more interested in berating those who don’t agree with them, rather than have a respectful and productive sharing of ideas.

For the record, I am a moderate conservative, not a fan of Trump, I do not think COVID is a hoax, I wear a mask and I socially distance myself and family, and yes I’m an evangelical Christian. And I know many who are in the same boat as myself.

[Elow]

Wow, that must be nice. To have someone actually take your safety into account. My school is ranked #3 in the state of florida for highest confirmed covid cases. Guess what, our trump loving school board voted against masks. Everyday i wait outside with 50 people all crammed on a couple benches, all of course not wearing masks. It just baffles me how a scottish opera has better precautions than a high school with 2000 kids.
I don’t really think it’s political to say a man who does not support wearing a masks, and mocks people for doing so, and doesn’t actually care about the people they are supposed to be leading, should not be taken seriously. The problem with the person in question, is that many people support and follow whatever they says without a single thought. The other side has done some questionable things, because people are people. People make mistake, people learn from mistake. But when you have a pandemic that spans over an entire year, and still don’t do anything major to solve it, or even enforce a mask mandate. You are an idiot. But oh well, i guess being an idiot is political

[Posaunus]

Everyday i wait outside with 50 people all crammed on a couple benches, all of course not wearing masks.

Elow, since you know better, do you sit adjacent to these 50 unmasked students, or do you wear a mask – and separate from them as much as possible?

Please take care and be safe. Don't be a statistic!

[JCBone]

well, it seems to have been decided that on this forum, Covid is a political issue, so a non- subject.
Chris

The admins can ban me if they wish, but 2 + 2 remains 4 (except in mod 4 arithmetic, where 2 + 2 is 0 and mod 3 arithmetic where 2 + 2 = 1), and it is also true that most of the COVID misery in the US can be traced to the actions of one identifiable political group. It's not the case that all members of that group are batcrap crazy, but the batcrap crazy actions mostly emanate from that group.

Well the governers in sone states like new york for example are also from a certian political party so I'm not sure what your point is.

[Elow]

Everyday i wait outside with 50 people all crammed on a couple benches, all of course not wearing masks.

Elow, since you know better, do you sit adjacent to these 50 unmasked students, or do you wear a mask – and separate from them as much as possible?

Please take care and be safe. Don't be a statistic!

Yes, i sit on my case with a mask against the wall, so a good 20 feet. I have family at home who are at risk

[spencercarran]

It just baffles me how a scottish opera has better precautions than a high school with 2000 kids.

Reason 1: $$$ (or I suppose £££)
Reason 2: High school students genuinely are at much lower risk than anyone in the Scottish opera.

But mostly reason 1.



I would say that it is inaccurate to lay blame exclusively to one side, and also inaccurate to cast "both sides" as equivalent. That's probably about as far as I should comment. Everybody stay safe, drink plenty of water, and do your long tones.

[glenp]

I would say that it is inaccurate to lay blame exclusively to one side, and also inaccurate to cast "both sides" as equivalent. That's probably about as far as I should comment. Everybody stay safe, drink plenty of water, and do your long tones.

Well said.

Oh and don’t forget your lip slurs.

[Bach5G]

“It just baffles me how a Scottish opera has better precautions than a high school with 2000 kids.”

It sounds to me that the opera followed evidence-based scientific and medical advice from gov’t public health organizations in order to protect its musicians and audience. And the school board, well you tell me.

[FOSSIL]

Please please remember that this is an international forum. The USA is not the whole world, though many there think it is. In the last decade, I've spent time there every year and know what a wonderful country it is and that it is full of kind, generous people.... but politics has always been a subject to avoid, and on the odd occasion it has come up things have gone badly. In other countries, politics is always being talked about....usually in a slightly detached way and not in a way that causes rifts. In Britain, Brexit may have stretched that, but we can have a debate and still remain civilised. Let's try to adopt an international style approach to our debates....mouthpieces to music to what we consider political and how we treat each other.

Chris

[harrisonreed]

Wow, that must be nice. To have someone actually take your safety into account. My school is ranked #3 in the state of florida for highest confirmed covid cases. Guess what, our trump loving school board voted against masks. Everyday i wait outside with 50 people all crammed on a couple benches, all of course not wearing masks. It just baffles me how a scottish opera has better precautions than a high school with 2000 kids.

You're confused as to why a high level professional organization conducts business more intelligently than a government run school with class sizes larger than even those in third-world countries?

If Chris' post and the other responses are in reference to this one, I think they may have read you the wrong way. Your post is clearly making a statement about your school (which you could argue should be a higher priority to society than perhaps an orchestra is), and not actually being critical of the Scottish Opera. In other words, "how can an orchestra get it right but my school get it so wrong". I can get behind that sentiment.

If Chris was referring to some other post, I'm sorry. It's tough to follow these threads. As for the political stuff in the US, the latest election shows that the process is still working there, at the very least. If the changes people want haven't happened yet, maybe their vote made a difference and the changes will come.

I'm really sad to hear about the state of your school, Elow. I hope you can see some positive changes there soon.

[Elow]

Yes, i did not want to demean the opera, it was more of how irresponsible my school is. Hopefully after christmas i can unenroll and go fully online.

[glenp]

My kids school district seems inconsistent to me. On the one hand they put out a relatively easy to follow rubric that schools should use to determine whether to be remote only, hybrid, or in person only. They said they would strictly enforce mask use, and monitor the breezeways to remind kids to distance from each other. In our district, Hybrid means individuals can choose whether they want to be remote or in person, and with in person they can be full time or just a couple days a week.

On the other hand, they said they will socially distance “where possible” and yet they did not put any limits in place to how many kids can be in person while in hybrid mode. This means if there are too many kids they can’t do social distancing.

And apparently the band is meeting and playing. And I know their band room has very limited airflow.

And the schools last email clearly said that they are “red” in two categories in the decision rubric that the district put out, so they are going to stay with hybrid mode. But the rubric clearly states that if a school is red in even one category they need to go back to remote only learning.

And of course bringing it back to bands, our community bands are all shut down and not able to use the school buildings (which is probably best). Yet they’re allowing the schools band to rehearse.

We’re keeping our kids home.

[FOSSIL]

Yes, i did not want to demean the opera, it was more of how irresponsible my school is. Hopefully after christmas i can unenroll and go fully online.

I was not referring to your comments which were quite clear and sensible. General rant. If you read this forum from another country much of it makes no sense if you have never been to the US. Just sayin'

Chris

[spencercarran]

My kids school district seems inconsistent to me. On the one hand they put out a relatively easy to follow rubric that schools should use to determine whether to be remote only, hybrid, or in person only. They said they would strictly enforce mask use, and monitor the breezeways to remind kids to distance from each other. In our district, Hybrid means individuals can choose whether they want to be remote or in person, and with in person they can be full time or just a couple days a week.

On the other hand, they said they will socially distance “where possible” and yet they did not put any limits in place to how many kids can be in person while in hybrid mode. This means if there are too many kids they can’t do social distancing.

And apparently the band is meeting and playing. And I know their band room has very limited airflow.

And the schools last email clearly said that they are “red” in two categories in the decision rubric that the district put out, so they are going to stay with hybrid mode. But the rubric clearly states that if a school is red in even one category they need to go back to remote only learning.

And of course bringing it back to bands, our community bands are all shut down and not able to use the school buildings (which is probably best). Yet they’re allowing the schools band to rehearse.

We’re keeping our kids home.

It's very difficult to navigate these situations given the general US culture of ultra-local control of education. Decision making responsibility often lies with volunteer school boards consisting of parents, who in most cases don't have the background or the access to independent experts to make the most informed choices (because why should the average school district have an epidemiologist on retainer?) In the absence of clear federal or state advice on school reopening and disease prevention measures, I would not expect most school boards to be equipped to understand the complicated and rapidly shifting science on covid. Add to that the multiple competing pressures they are under from various stakeholders, and a bit of inconsistency in policymaking (and implementation of any policy) is the natural result.

I support keeping kids home where that's a viable option. There's still a lot that's unknown about how much spread happens in schools and how much risk there can be to students, but every parent knows that their children bring other coronaviruses back from the classroom and pass them to older members of the household.

[Bach5G]

“I support keeping kids home where that's a viable option.”

There’s the rub. What’s a viable option?

I was watching an anti-mask demonstration on TV last night. The signs read: 99% survivability is not an emergency. Could they be right?

[spencercarran]

Essential workers may not have any other childcare options, districts that are in-person only may still be in jurisdictions where school attendance is compulsory... everyone's choices are constrained in one way or another.

That gets into political questions of how much we value human life, but it's worth noting that 1% of a large number is often still a large number, and there are downstream effects of overburdened hospitals. The sheer amount of death and long term disability from this pandemic is upsetting to me, and I don't think I'm out of step with mainstream sensibilities there.

[SwissTbone]

It's interesting watching how priorities are different for the same problem around the world.

From what I understand, in the US you'd prefer having all kids at home. Here in Switzerland we are facing a second lockdown. But consensus is, that we will not again close schools as the social consequences are to important.

[FOSSIL]

Yup, I think we are all agreed that this is a complex situation with many conflicting demands and no easy answers.
In the UK we have been and continue to be, poorly served by those running the country, elected or not. Slow to act and duplicitous in statements, we have to find the science for ourselves. I think this may be common in many places around the globe. Those in charge are afraid to share information with us, the great unwashed... they must think we are stupid. ....but those people are creating a sea of poor information and conflicting rules that leave us in confusion.

Chris

[StephenK]

Yup, I think we are all agreed that this is a complex situation with many conflicting demands and no easy answers.
In the UK we have been and continue to be, poorly served by those running the country, elected or not. Slow to act and duplicitous in statements, we have to find the science for ourselves. I think this may be common in many places around the globe. Those in charge are afraid to share information with us, the great unwashed... they must think we are stupid. ....but those people are creating a sea of poor information and conflicting rules that leave us in confusion.

I don't think I've seen our country as divided as it has been for the past few years, and more so now, as any other time in my life.

[BGuttman]

[...
I don't think I've seen our country as divided as it has been for the past few years, and more so now, as any other time in my life.

That goes for the US as well.

[glenp]

I don't think I've seen our country as divided as it has been for the past few years, and more so now, as any other time in my life.

That goes for the US as well.

Indeed. It's very sad. But it is understandable that we won't all agree on how best to respond to this virus - there are many unknowns and what we know seems to be constantly evolving. People react very differently in those circumstances.

OP, I hope you'll be able to share the recording with us. I'd love to hear it when it's done.

[LeTromboniste]

Yeah the school closings is one of the thorniest issues. On one hand, open schools is a huge transmission vector, on the other hands, having schools closed will have a huge impact on the quality of an entire generation's education, which will have ramifications through all society for decades.

And that's before even going into some of the issues with giving the option to stay home. The kids who most desperately need to be in school are those from low-income and welfare communities, who on top of often depending on school lunches, disproportionally suffer from learning difficulties, have behaviour disorders and/or live in dysfunctional households with issues of drug, mental illness, verbal, psychological, physical or sexual abuse, etc. Those are also often the first kids who aren't being sent to school if the option is there not to send them. Many countries are already doing a relatively poor job in supporting them and not letting slip through the net in normal times. The impact of closed schools on those kids is a tragedy.

[Bach5G]

“Our so-called leaders speak ... But it’s the rhetoric of failure.”

The schools, at least, elementary schools, have not been significant sources of transmission according to our PH officers. I’m not sure how many of the social-economic issues could be resolved - the poor will always be with us - but I’m convinced that many of the educational issues could have been sorted out if our pols hadn’t first reached for fast and easy solutions. Hindsight though and we now know much more about the virus.

[spencercarran]

It's interesting watching how priorities are different for the same problem around the world.

From what I understand, in the US you'd prefer having all kids at home. Here in Switzerland we are facing a second lockdown. But consensus is, that we will not again close schools as the social consequences are to important.

That's less a statement of our priorities than a consequence of disorganization. Most people will agree that open schools should be a priority over open restaurants, but there isn't a coherent enough political will to make the trade-off happen and it's different coalitions of interest groups pushing at each issue - teachers' unions (justifiably) concerned for the safety of their members, restaurant associations (also justifiably!) concerned with their livelihoods, and the discussions about opening/closing each of those venues is currently happening separately without consideration for the impact of one on the other.

The schools, at least, elementary schools, have not been significant sources of transmission according to our PH officers.

That's not entirely clear. We can say that elementary schools are probably lower risk than high schools or universities, and child development experts tell us that in-person instruction is more crucial at younger ages. But universities make their own financially motivated choices, and no college town has explicitly decided whether they should close the university to make elementary school reopening easier.

[Burgerbob]

I was watching an anti-mask demonstration on TV last night. The signs read: 99% survivability is not an emergency. Could they be right?

If 3,310,000* American deaths is acceptable and not an emergency, then by all means!

*1% of current US population of 331 million

[Posaunus]

I was watching an anti-mask demonstration on TV last night. The signs read: 99% survivability is not an emergency. Could they be right?

If 3,310,000* American deaths is acceptable and not an emergency, then by all means!

*1% of current US population of 331 million

I think the 1% number refers to the percentage of individuals with confirmed diagnosis of Covid-19 who will die. (The percentage is actually now higher than 1% in some regions of the country. ) But we have already had about 250,000 verified Covid-related deaths in the United States in the last 10 months, and are probably heading toward 500,000 by mid-2021. This is higher than the total number of U.S. deaths in WWI, WWII, Korea, Vietnam, and the Middle East combined.
• Is this of serious concern? Yes!
• Is it an emergency? Yes!
• Did we anticipate in February/March that Covid-19 would have such an impact? No.
• Have we learned a great deal about this virus, how it spreads, and the potential impact on health, life, and the economy? Yes!
• Could we (collectively) have handled the situation better? Unquestionably yes!
• Are there folks (individuals and groups that we could point fingers at? Yes!
• Is there lots of disinformation (purposeful) and misinformation (possibly unintentional) about Covid-19 out there? Yes!

Friends, we are at war. Not with each other, or some political party or religious organization – but with an evil virus. Let's recognize that, and work together to conquer this enemy!

[FOSSIL]

I think this is a fine thread. So much insightful comment...bravo.
This is the first time in history that science has given the world a chance to make choices and what terrible choices some of them are.
This is beyond politics, it is a test of our morals and our humanity....people's lives and people's livelihoods.

Chris

[LeTromboniste]

• Did we anticipate in February/March that Covid-19 would have such an impact? No.

Did we really not? The CDC models in early- to mid-march estimated that Covid could kill between 200K and 1.7M Americans.

And I can't find the source anymore but I quite clearly remember seeing in late March or early April forecasts that unless substantial measures were taken, a 300-400K death toll in the US by year's end was a serious possibility. That turned out to be pretty accurate.

[spencercarran]

• Did we anticipate in February/March that Covid-19 would have such an impact? No.

Did we really not? The CDC models in early- to mid-march estimated that Covid could kill between 200K and 1.7M Americans.

And I can't find the source anymore but I quite clearly remember seeing in late March or early April forecasts that unless substantial measures were taken, a 300-400K death toll in the US by year's end was a serious possibility. That turned out to be pretty accurate.

Those estimates you're thinking of came from Neil Ferguson's group at Imperial College London. There wasn't an "official" US forecast along those lines yet, but plenty of infectious disease researchers privately ran simulations of varying levels of sophistication, many of which landed in a similar ballpark.

[EDITED TO ADD]: The earliest US-based forecasts to be covered prominently in the general media were from IHME in Washington, which were very optimistic and very wrong. The flaws in their methodology were immediately obvious to nearly all practicing scientists, and they have since reworked their model to bring it more in line with modern understanding of infectious disease.

[harrisonreed]

• Did we anticipate in February/March that Covid-19 would have such an impact? No.

Did we really not? The CDC models in early- to mid-march estimated that Covid could kill between 200K and 1.7M Americans.

And I can't find the source anymore but I quite clearly remember seeing in late March or early April forecasts that unless substantial measures were taken, a 300-400K death toll in the US by year's end was a serious possibility. That turned out to be pretty accurate.

Yeah, I am not surprised. This has unfolded about how I expected it to, and I read estimates similar to those and took them seriously. The time for action was in February. If everyone adopted the Korea/Japan approach numbers wouldn't be anywhere near where they are now. 14 day complete lock down, and borders closed for several months. By March it was too late.